How can demographics affect crime trends

For example, research shows that people who have been physically, sexually or emotionally abused as children are three times more likely than non-abused adults to commit acts of violence. In communities where crime is tolerated, a person may commit a crime simply to fit in with his peers.

A well-resourced police force coupled with tough sentences for perpetrators may help to reduce the crime rate. The U. Mass incarceration removes people from the streets who would otherwise be committing crimes. Visible policing may also have a deterrent effect.

When New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani implemented a policy of "broken-windows policing" — cracking down on minor crimes to make neighborhoods feel safer — crime declined at a precipitous rate. Some argue against credit given to Giuliani's policies, suggesting that a drop in unemployment rates may have been the reason for the crime reduction. There's a correlation between the crime rate and the age of the population.

Specifically, most crimes are committed by people in their teens, 20s and 30s, especially in areas where the population is both young and transient. The crux of the Malthusian argument is that population is to increase more rapidly than food supply; population is increasing at a geometric progression 1, 2, 4, 8, , while food production on the other hand is growing at an arithmetic progression.

Hence, food production is not growing fast enough to meet up with the number of people. There are also different theoretical perspective pertaining to the issue of crime; theoretically cities do not cause or produce crime.

According to the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs the social discord created by huge contrasts in economic well being in the form of abject poverty in close juxtaposition with great wealth, the frustration produced by marginalization and the inability to do anything about it are perhaps the most significant motives for crime.

There are many other theories used in this study which includes the differential association, the frustration aggression and the anomie theories. The differential association theory postulated by Edwin based on the premises that crime is a product of socialization. The frustration aggression theory of crime identified there is a gap between expectation and achievement in the social life of the people in the city.

And invariably leads to frustration and the urge to react aggressively through such criminal acts like assassination, demonstration, bombing and riots.

Urban violence is a serious development constraint in cities of developing counties and increasingly dominates the daily lives of citizens Agbola, The accompanying increase in fear and insecurity had led to wide scale preoccupation with the phenomena. There are however little agreement on the underlying causes of such endemic violence or of its costs and consequences.

According to Vandeschuerem , violence can be defined as an act that causes a physical or psychological wound or damage. Crime is also growing in rural areas, though slowly, it is certainly more visible in cities and creates a sense of insecurity that generates distrust and the withdrawal of individuals t or force which could be a , inhabitants there has been a considerable increase in property crime and drug peddling or drug trafficking.

Tamino defined violence as the unlawful use of threat or force which could be a manifestation of despair and desperation. The current process of urbanization goes hand in hand with a rise in urban crime that outstrips the demographic growth of cities. Each region, country and city presents different patterns of change in western Europe Newman, There is a rapid growth in petty crime whilst most serious seems to be under control due to modernization policy and criminal justice measure as well as the development of sophisticated international cooperation Vandersauren, Criminal activities in urban centers has attracted significant amount of research interest in recent years.

The rationale for its developing as a research focus include, the fact that fear of crime is a much bigger problem than crime itself. Fear is the immediate response of most people to violence Agbola, This has been defined as emotional reaction to danger Kaplan, This implies that when danger is sensed or perceived, there is likelihood of emotional disturbance and this is expressed in fear. The fear of crime in the urban centers can cause some effects on the people directly or indirectly in that society.

Direct effects are the actual effects incurred by the victims of crime, while indirect effects are those incurred by potential victims trying to prevent crime Andy, Fear is the immediate response of most people to violence. It has been defined as an emotional reaction to danger Agbola, When danger is sense or perceived, there is the likelihood of emotional disturbance and this is expressed as fear.

With increased knowledge about danger, there is a corresponding increase in fear of that danger. Conversely, an obscene of knowledge about danger means that fear does not exist. The more highly developed the intellectual capacity of an organism, the more that can be comprehended and anticipated and therefore, the greater susceptibility to fear ro danger.

Similarly, emotional response to danger tend to increase with age and understanding such that adults are more likely to sense understanding the danger within the environment than children. Apparently, since fear tends to increase with affluence in most cases is also age related either in individuals or in the development of a nation.

More and more people have become victims of criminal activities which is reflected in the fortified nature of the design of building and the surrounding walls and gates. This is common among the educated people who are most susceptible to the fear of crime and therefore uses more sophisticated and expensive measures to safeguard their residential space. This a theory of crime developed by Newman in his study of public residential building in New York. The first pre0 occupation was to study the physical characteristics of housing pattern to determine which of these might present an opening for criminal activities.

Defensive space in terms of the arrangement of building grounds and the interior grouping of apartments is achieved when residents can easily observe and control activities taking place within it. Residents can then be seen to employ a full range of encounter mechanisms which show their observation of questionable activities and their control of the situation Newman, The defensible space or environment extends into the street which surrounds the residents.

Causes of crime include lack of prospects or opportunities for upward social mobility, negative socialization, peer pressure, absence o strong legal deterrents due to a general breakdown of family values, lack of social controls within the cities, this tend to lead to lack of respect for authority and law.

Also quantitative- insufficiency of social housing programmes and community amenities, the provocative and poorly protected environment. Apart from these, the excessive violence in films and the pervasive influence of the mass media also motivate people in urban centers to commit crime Vanderchuern, ; Awake,[Watch Tower Bible Society], Crimes can be categories into different types of criminal behavior it inspire of different degree if concern and are differently inspected or reported.

Also in this category we put vagrancy, gambling and other behavior thought to be disorderly, and non- productive or otherwise offensive to prevailing standards of public conduct. This category of criminal activities is so diverse and they are also considered and treated separately. A number of less common property offences such as counterfeiting and receiving stolen goods are included in aggregate measures of crimes of acquisition and the ability of people to function efficiently, it can be said to be behavour that has been labeled criminal because it is contrary to shared norms, social value and customs.

There are different preventive measures to the control of crime both in developed and developing countries with greater frequency, intensity and range in developed countries. It be direct and indirect strategies of controlling crime, the direct strategies involve provision of job opportunities or upgrading the community social amenities by improving the quality of life Omisakin, The indirect strategies are preventive measures which are more technical and mechanical that tends to reduce opportunities for constructive leisure time activities Omisakin, The direct strategies are increasingly being used in developing countries like Nigeria, Ghana etc.

Since the study is an examination of population growth and crime in Ibadan municipality, information on the general population size, number of people involved in crime, types of crime prevalent and the effectiveness of the crime control in the study area Ibadan.

These informations were sourced from both secondary and primary sources. Random sampling were used to select respondents from eight local on whom questionnaire were administered to obtain primary information regarding the perception of respondents on criminal activities in Ibadan municipality.

Both the descriptive and inferential method of analyze wee used to analyze the data collected from the field. Under the descriptive percentage, cross-tabulation and bar graph were employed to summarize the field information. Correlation method of analyses was used to explain the relationship between population and crime rate in the study area. The population size increased at the rate of 3. At this period, urbanization has not taken it toll on on Ibadan in terms of the social ills associated with urbanization when compared to the recent trend especially now that the numbers of local governments have been increased to 11 Table 1.

The addition of new local governments led to the spread of criminal activities within the city, with local government area with high population figure witnessing high crime rate. For instance, assault increased from 35, to 49, , armed robbery increased from , to , Fraud increased from 35, to 44, , likewise drug peddling also increased from 11, to 16, Tables 2 and 3.

Because of the high proportion of the respondent Table 6 shows the bulk of the reason for committing crime as explained by respondents ranges from overpopulation Population growth if not properly managed can impoverish the masses and other vices because resources become inadequate. These reports may or may not rise to the level of useful scientific data, but if these media are willing to disclose their methods and assumptions to you, you can evaluate them just as you make judgments about possible defects in well-established sources such as the census.

If your population is active online, you can try Internet-based surveys to determine detailed population characteristics, providing you have a piece or two of hard data to enable you to judge what percentage of people in the neighborhood have returned the survey. You'll find various on-line survey mechanisms that cost little to nothing to use.

To obtain traffic counts, ask the government that controls the road--the state department of transportation for federal or state roads, or a county, municipal, or township organization, depending on who built and owns the road.

If you don't know, ask one level of government and they can refer you to the right entity. Be prepared for the transportation provider not to have the traffic count you want. You can ask them to install a traffic counting device temporarily, but many of them have more requests than they can accommodate.

Even considering all these sources, it's certainly possible that you may not find exactly the information you'd like for exactly the geographic configuration that you need. When I was a municipal planner, the typical experience was that when a neighborhood leader would come to obtain Census tables, they would leave with 20 or 25 pages of material. Then about a week later the panicked phone call would come.

The essence would be "but what does this all mean? Here are the questions to ask when you have lots of data and not too much experience in "reading" it:. Even longer comparisons may be useful to show trends. By what percentage? What about the comparison of my neighborhood to my entire metropolitan region? What factors account for this? Are there dormitories, prisons, nursing homes, group homes, or other "out of sight, out of mind" groups living in your community that are skewing the numbers?

An aging population is important to note for the neighborhood. This gives information not only about the possible needs of current residents, but also about when housing in the neighborhood is likely to begin turning over at a faster rate than is occurring now. Generally a high percentage of home ownership as compared to a high number of renters is a good thing, as owners typically have more emotional investment in the neighborhood.

Are the people who moved in during the last 10 years significantly different in any demographic characteristic from the people who have lived in the neighborhood for more than 20 years? If so, you know where you're headed. Determine if you like that future or not, and what predictions your local business community should be making on the neighborhood demographics trends. Will your housing stock accommodate the size and composition of families that are moving in?

Are your houses too big, because now most of your people are "empty nesters"? If so, we predict an exodus next time energy costs spike. Will your school district be thinking of closing schools because there are no little kids?

Are wages staying stagnant over the years? If so, what would deferred housing maintenance mean to the community? Are you finding a significant number of children living with the grandparents or with single parents? How is that relevant to programming your local parks department or library?

If people are moving away faster than they move in, where are they going? What does that tell you about their incomes, households sizes, tastes in housing, job market, or journey to work? These are some examples of what you might learn if you get one of the numbers crunchers in your organization to take a look at population, income, and housing characteristics.

We wandered a little beyond demographics here and there, but you need to be aware of all these possible measurements. Correct application of the data is important in deciding the next steps for your neighborhood, or in practical steps such as writing winning community development grant narratives. If you need help in interpreting the data that you see, ask a nearby person affiliated with a university, such as an extension agent.

If you have a professional or very motivated amateur living in your neighborhood, one source of free historical data based on the U. They have thought through how to make historical comparisons using Census data. This source requires considerable sifting out of information irrelevant to your neighborhood, but it can be worth it. Their system also allows linking up to the geographic information system program to produce maps. Check this out if you are producing a neighborhood plan or preparing a grant application for a significant amount of money.

Another interesting tool is using the Google Maps Streetview feature of seeing previous Streetviews. Obviously this will grow in importance as the Streetviews history lengthens. In the very near future, we see the technological potential to use geolocation data from cell phones, geographic information systems computerized mapping , sensors mounted on light poles or buildings, and autonomous vehicle usage patterns to support your neighborhood's need to know.